Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) --06/02/2011 -- The general improvement in sentiment in the financial markets over the past month has also been evident in the commodity markets.

There has been further evidence that the global economic recovery in continuing, there has been more support for the view that the pressures resulting from the sovereign debt crisis in Europe may be easing.

As a result, base metals are generally lower over the month, even after the rally on the latest Chinese announcement about the renminbi; most soft commodity prices are slightly lower, although there have been sharp rises in beverage prices on concerns about future supplies; precious metal prices have moved higher as investors have continued to seek "safe havens in the storm"; and there has been a strong recovery in oil prices, helped by optimistic signs of a pick up in US demand.

Base metal prices are ending the past month well above recent low levels, but still slightly lower overall, and there has been an additional boost to confidence in the announcement of a "more flexible" policy towards the renminbi.

It is assumed that even a modest appreciation of the Chinese currency will boost the purchasing power of Chinese buyers, and increase still further China's position as the world's largest importer of a broad range of global commodities.

But there is clearly a risk that the importance of this fairly modest move is being exaggerated; and the extent of the earlier reaction should be a powerful warning of the degree of speculative activity in the markets, and the vulnerability of prices. Chinese demand clearly remains a critical factor, and the evidence suggests that it will remain reasonably strong.

Soft commodity markets have again produced a more mixed performance.

Movements in grain prices have been fairly modest, although there has been some support from a recent report by the US Department of Agriculture that the increasing importance of ethanol production will continue to draw down stock levels and help to offset the effects of what is expected to be a bumper grain crop this year.

Most price movements elsewhere have been fairly small; but there have been two significant exceptions. Cocoa prices have been pushed to their highest levels for more than 30 years because of disappointing crop levels in West Africa, and particularly in the Ivory Coast, and the warning that the fall in production will continue unless there is significant investment in new trees and in fertilisers.

There are fears that demand will outstrip supply for the fifth successive year in the 2010/2011 season, and this has forced cocoa buyers to push up prices to cover their requirements, and has exposed the position of banks and others that sold call options in the expectation that prices would fall. The second significant exception has been coffee prices, which have increased by almost 20% during the past month.

The indications are that one commodity-trading house has accumulated a very large number of futures contracts and has indicated that it intends to take delivery of the coffee.

Other funds that had sold futures contracts short have been unable to obtain the coffee to honour those contracts, and so have been forced to scramble to close them and have suffered considerable losses as prices have moved higher.

It is not yet clear whether this technical position has now been cleared; but the fundamentals do not appear to justify the price action, since Brazilian production is expected to be very high in the current season, and so, once the technical position had been cleared, prices could fall fairly sharply.

Oil prices have also been affected by the improvement in market sentiment, and have recovered very sharply over the past month.

Speculative activity has been an important factor; but there has also been an encouraging report from the US Department of Energy indicating strong demand for oil products in the US, and a larger-than-expected reduction in crude oil inventories.

There has also been evidence of continuing strong demand from China; and a warning of the onset of the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico, and its possible effects on production levels.

So far however the dramatic oil spill at the BP production well in the Gulf does not appear to have had a noticeable effect on market prices, although the possible consequences, especially for deep-water drilling operations in the future, could clearly become a very significant factor.

The recovery in prices has been very impressive; but it may not be sustainable. OPEC itself has recently issued a very cautious monthly report which argues that "recent developments have moved oil prices out of equilibrium", and which emphasises that increasing supplies from non-OPEC countries are keeping downward pressure on prices.

It concludes, that "although demand has seen some improvement recently, it has been more than overwhelmed by the higher growth in supply". It seems likely therefore that the present rally will lose momentum unless there is a serious deterioration in the political situation in the Middle East. Precious metal prices have also moved higher over the past month; investors are clearly still seeking "safe havens in the storm" despite the improvement in sentiment about prospects that has pushed some other commodity prices higher.

Gold prices have reached $1250 per ounce, and silver prices have also moved significantly higher, with exchange-traded funds aggressive buyers of both metals.

The World Gold Council, in its recent quarterly report, indicated that demand for gold was "exceptionally strong", and that it was expected to remain so for the rest of year, "driven by jewellery demand in India and China, and investment demand in the US and in Europe".

However it is clear that investment demand is the more important factor, with EFT gold holdings now above 2000 tons, and central banks also adding to their holdings again.

There is an obvious risk that the latest surge in prices will lead to some profit taking. But given the present situation, and particularly the risk of sovereign debt defaults, it would be unwise to assume that the improvement in precious metal prices in over.

At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices.

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The situation in Greece and in Spain has obviously caused great concern in London.

Seou, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/09/2011 -- The situation in Greece and in Spain has obviously caused great concern in London. But the Bank is also aware of the risks as a time when the economy is still in a very fragile state, and of the need to compensate for the fiscal retrenchment by maintaining a supportive monetary policy, and low short-term interest rates. There are therefore reasons for concern about the prospects for sterling. If the latest measures do succeed in reducing the fiscal deficit to manageable levels without aborting the economic recovery, and if the problems affecting the euro continue, or become even more serious, then sterling may well maintain current levels or even appreciate further.

Shaw Capital Management, Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

But the situation is very uncertain, and the odds do seem to favour a further period of weakness until the effects of the latest government measures can be more accurately assessed.

The yen has weakened slightly over the past month as the improvement in market sentiment has increased
the "risk appetite" of investors for the equity markets, and for commodity-related currencies.

The economic background in Japan has continued to improve, helped by the export performance; but there are still doubts about whether this improvement can be sustained, and these doubts have been increased by the latest announcement by the new prime minister that the main priority of his government will be a reduction in the huge fiscal deficit, rather than the promotion of fresh measures to accelerate the growth rate.

There is also a further uncertainty created by the decision by the Chinese authorities to adopt a "more flexible" policy on the renminbi that presumably means that it will be allowed to appreciate slightly faster. It is not clear what the consequences of this move will be; but overall it seems likely that conditions elsewhere, especially those affecting the euro, and some disappointment with "risky" investments in global markets, will continue to provide some stability to the Japanese currency.

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Factory output expanded at a record pace in April, helped by investment spending associated with the export effort, and overseas demand for European capital equipment, and the trend appears to be continuing.

Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/08/2011 -- The big fall in the euro in recent months is clearly having a significant impact on the performance of the
euro-zone economy.

Shaw Capital Management, Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Factory output expanded at a record pace in April, helped by investment spending associated with the export effort, and overseas demand for European capital equipment, and the trend appears to be continuing. The major beneficiary has been Germany, but other northern member countries are also involved.

However the situation is much less encouraging in Greece, Spain, and Portugal, because they are less competitive in export markets, and are being forced to introduce austerity measures to reduce their fiscal deficits.

Domestic demand across the entire euro-zone remains weak, and so, despite the export performance of some member countries, it seems unlikely that the overall growth rate for the zone this year will reach 2%. The European Central Bank remains reasonably optimistic about prospects; but fortunately it has not moved towards an "exit strategy" that might involve reversing the measures that were introduced to counter the recession.

Short-term interest rates have been left unchanged and close to zero, the programme to provide unlimited three-month loans to the banking system is continuing, and the bank is also still intervening in the markets to buy the bonds of weaker member countries that had been sold heavily because of fears about debt defaults. The bank is therefore continuing to provide support for the system; but it is not really doing enough to offset the concerns about the debt crisis.

Greece remains in the eye of the storm; but there have been increasing concerns about the situation in Spain; and the situation has been made worse by the latest warning from the Fitch Ratings agency that it may take further massive asset purchases by the European Central Bank to prevent the sovereign debt crisis in the area escalating out of control.

Shaw Capital Management August 2010: Financial Markets Focusing Europe - There are fears that Spain will need to follow Greece in requesting help from other member countries and the IMF to enable it to avoid a default, and that Portugal, and perhaps even Italy, may also need to be rescued.

The pressures on the euro will therefore be intense; and whilst there may well be further support from the Swiss National Bank and others, the future of the single currency system clearly remains very uncertain. The latest modest rally in the euro must therefore be treated with great care.

Sterling has recovered from the weakness that developed in May, and is ending the month higher. The economic background in the UK has not provided any real support, and the Bank of England is clearly intending to maintain short-term interest rates at very low levels; but there has been some movement of funds out of the euro into sterling, and the new coalition government in the UK has introduced measures to reduce the massive fiscal deficit that have been well received in the markets and led to an improvement in sentiment.

There is clearly a risk that these latest measures in the Budget will depress the level of activity still further, and fail to solve the fiscal problems; but for the moment it seems that the new government is being given the benefit of the doubt.

The evidence on the performance of the economy ahead of the Budget announcement was still pointing to a very slow recovery in activity.

The manufacturing sector is reasonably buoyant, with exports expanding rapidly; and retail sales also increased more quickly than expected.

But unemployment rose again to 2.47 million, and the latest survey from the CBI indicated that the value and volume of business in the services sector fell, and that further weakness was expected in the second half of the year.

However the situation has obviously been changed significantly by the latest Budget measures, and the latest estimates from the newly-formed Office for Budget Responsibility are that growth will now only be 1.2% this year, rising to 2.3% next year, and improving slightly in succeeding years.

The Bank of England has welcomed the decision by the new government to introduce measures to address the problems created by the huge fiscal deficit. The governor, Mervyn King, argued recently that they would "eliminate some of the downside risks…and are desirable to remove the risk of an adverse market reaction."

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Sentiment in the financial markets

Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/27/2011 -- Sentiment in the financial markets has improved over the past month. There has been further evidence that the recovery in the global economy is continuing; the sovereign debt crisis in Europe has not yet produced a major casualty; there has been a modest rally in the euro; and the Chinese authorities have announced that they intend to adopt a "more flexible" policy towards the renminbi that is expected to allow it to appreciate at a slightly faster rate.

Shaw Capital Management August 2010: Financial Markets - These developments have suggested that the gloom was overdone. The effect in the currency markets had been to slightly weaken both the dollar and the yen, as the "risk appetite" amongst investors and traders has increased, and to strengthen the commodity-linked currencies and ease the pressures on the euro. Sterling has also improved over the month, helped by the measures announced by the new coalition government in the UK, both before and during the recent budget statement, to significantly reduce the huge fiscal deficit.

Shaw Capital Management views on financial market - But overall movements in the major currencies have been fairly small, and there is still considerable optimism about prospects.

The latest evidence on the performance of the US economy has enhanced the prospects for the dollar, and this should also continue to provide some stability
for the yen.

The sovereign debt problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and even in Italy, continue to worsen, and may well lead to defaults and put further pressure on the single currency system.

There must also be serious doubts about the latest improvement in sterling.

The new government in the UK is making credible efforts to reduce the size of the fiscal deficit; but it faces a daunting task, and will find it very difficult to maintain its tough stance.

There is therefore a serious risk of a crisis in the UK currency market, and so it is crucial that the international agencies prepare contingency measures to enable them to act quickly if the situation appears to be running out of control.

The latest available evidence on the performance of the US economy; show the recovery from recession remains on track.

Retail sales were 1.2% lower in May than in April, emphasizing the cautious mood amongst consumers; non-farm payrolls increased by 431,000 in May, but 411,000 jobs were accounted for by temporary government hiring to complete the 2010 census, leaving the increase in "real" jobs well below expectations; new home starts fell sharply in May following the withdrawal of government measures to prop up the market, and existing home sales also fel.

And the M3 measure of broad money growth is also continuing to decline because of weak loan demand from reliable borrowers, and the reluctance of the banks to lend to anyone else. There are offsetting factors in the strength of the manufacturing sector; and consumer confidence figures remain reasonably strong.

The Commerce Department has recently revised its estimate of growth in the first quarter of the year down to a 3% annualised rate; but this rate may not have been maintained in the current quarter; and this has already led to a strong plea to Congress from the government to authorise additional spending programmes costing up to $50 billion "to keep the recovery on track", it is not clear how Congress will respond.

The Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke's recently testimony to Congress; that the pace of the recovery will not be strong enough to fix the jobs market or reduce the budget deficit without further help, also argued that, despite the size of that deficit, "to avoid sharp, disruptive shifts in spending programmes and tax policies in the future, and to retain the confidence of the public and the markets, we should start planning now how we will meet these budgetary challenges". This view about the economy is repeated in the statement after the latest meeting of the bank's Open Market Committee, and so, although the bank believes that the recovery is continuing, it is not surprising that it is quietly considering what steps it might have to take if the recovery unexpectedly falters.

There has been a modest recovery in the euro from a low-point in the early part of the past month, although it is still ending the period slightly lower.

The economic background in the euro-zone is continuing to improve, and there has been evidence of support for the euro, particularly from the Swiss National Bank, which reported an increase in its foreign currency reserves of more than $100 billion in May. But the benefits have been limited by the on-going sovereign debt problems amongst some member countries of the euro-zone, and especially by the serious deterioration in the situation in Spain, and so the improvement that has occurred remains very fragile.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/07/2011 -- For most of the past month sentiment in the financial markets continued to improve.

There was further evidence that the global economic recovery was still on track, and short-term interest rates remained very low.

But towards month-end the mood changed after the decision to downgrade Greek debt to "junk" status, and to reduce the credit ratings of both Portugal and Spain.

There was a fear that the contagion would spread still further, and that the bond market pressures resulting from the massive fiscal deficits around the world would have serious financial consequences.

There was always the risk that some of the measures that were introduced to counter the recession might have adverse consequences, and this is now proving to be the case.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Major Equity Markets

After moving ahead for most of the month, most of the major equity markets are ending the period unchanged or slightly higher, and there have been sharp falls in many of the minor markets.

Wall Street has been the exception, and is ending higher, encouraged by some favourable corporate results.

But markets in Europe, including the UK, are lower, and there have been falls in the Chinese market, and other Asian markets, after the measures by the authorities to reduce the risk of over-heating in the Chinese economy.

However views about longer-term prospect are still fairly positive, and the markets seem to be simply pausing until some of the uncertainties have been resolved.

Bond markets; have produced a mixed performance,with the major markets holdings fairly steady, despite the worsening background situation, but with the minor markets, especially in Europe, suffering very sharp falls, and yield spreads between the stronger and weaker markets opening up to record levels.

The threat of sovereign debt defaults has increased and urgent action is needed, especially in Europe, if they are to be avoided.

However there are also warnings that similar conditions could develop in the UK and in Japan if there are no early moves to reduce the level of fiscal deficits.

It is still expected that an aid package will be agreed to avoid a default on Greek debt; but this may only provide temporary relief.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Currencies

Movements amongst the major currencies have been relatively small over the past month.

However the weakness of the euro has enabled both the dollar and sterling to improve as investors have rushed to reduce their exposure to the European currency.

There is a fear that the debt problems affecting Greece and other countries in the euro-zone will make it extremely difficult to restore the credibility of the euro, and that it might make it necessary for some countries to leave the single currency system, at least on a temporary basis.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Short-Term Interest Rates

There have been no changes in short-term interest rates in the major financial centres over the month.

The Bank of Canada though has indicated that it is considering pushing rates higher, and this has encouraged speculation that other central banks may be planning similar moves.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Commodity Markets

Moved higher over the past month as sentiment in the financial markets improved.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

The latest developments in the government debt markets have increased the uncertainties about prospects for both the bond and financial markets.

Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/07/2011 -- We have made no changes in our portfolios this month.

The latest developments in the government debt markets have increased the uncertainties about prospects for both the bond and financial markets.

However, although the pace of the global economic recovery may be affected, there appears to be enough momentum to enable it to continue.

We have therefore maintained the level of our exposure to the equity markets; and we have left 10% of the funds in the portfolio in cash deposits as a contingency measure. Bond exposure is zero.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Portfolio
Recommendations - The UK Hung Parliament

The bond markets are totally calm about the hung Parliament, as they are about both UK and US bond prospects, with yields still below 4%, in spite of the huge deficits both countries are running.

What is going on?

The first point is that both countries are recovering, and seem set for growth rates in the 2–3% range.

Such growth is not 'V-shaped' but a V was unlikely given the shortage of oil and raw materials, which continues to limit world recovery potential. It does give a prospect of improving tax revenues and falling benefit expenditures.

As growth goes forward it will be possible to work out more accurately how much of the current deficit is 'structural' — i.e. will not disappear with returning growth.

For the UK the current estimate is that about 8% of GDP is structural: still requiring a huge programme of retrenchment.

The second point is that neither the UK nor the US has ever formally defaulted in modern times.

Indeed for the UK, they can date this from the end of the Napoleonic Wars when public debt reached around 300% of GDP.

The third point is the new unwillingness to use higher inflation to bring down the debt in real value. Inflation (implying an 'inflation tax' on government monetary liabilities which thereby lose their value) is now proscribed after the poor experiences of developed countries during the 'great inflation' of the 1970s. Electorates have rejoiced at the new inflation targeting policies that have formally ended governments' experiments with this form of taxation. The electorates hated the messy and unintended redistributions of wealth this tax implied — often from the weak such as pensioners to the wealthy and the unionized.

In this context bond markets have treated Mr. Obama's delays and the UK's election result as simply policy deferred.

In that they are likely to be right.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Portfolio
Recommendations - The state of the eurozone

By contrast the situation in the euro-zone looks increasingly difficult.

The problem is that Greece and Portugal — the two main current problem cases — joined the euro in the expectation that low interest rates would keep their public finances under control.

Internally these countries have difficulty in raising taxes and curbing expenditure but joining the EU and then the euro gave them the authority to insist on fiscal discipline as the 'price' of joining.

Now the discipline is becoming harsh and yet interest rate premia are rising, as the risk of default increases. Germany and the other euro-zone countries are unwilling to transfer resources to them — and even to provide loans on terms below these market rates. Germany's position in particular has hardened massively under hostile home reactions to perceived 'bail-out'.

Germany is simply unwilling to make transfers after the huge costs of its integration policies for East Germany.

There will come a point where the advantages of being in the euro are outweighed by the disadvantages for a country like Greece.

Once interest rate premia get high enough inside the euro, the attraction of floating the currency down outside it and still paying similar interest rates will become overwhelming to governments faced with public hostility to further sacrifice.

A large devaluation is a way of allowing the economy to recover and produce extra revenue. Furthermore reintroducing the local currency will allow the government to re-denominate the debt in that new sovereign currency … so effecting a de facto partial default.

These exits would not spell the end of the euro. But they will remind markets that the euro is bound together by political convenience only and not by some deep commitment to European integration. Up to now there has been a general belief in such a commitment; however, Germany's recent actions have destroyed this belief.

It was this belief that kept interest rate premia down on sovereign debt of euro-zone countries; rather like the debt of UK local authorities — formally underwritten by the UK government, it was felt that these countries' debt was being implicitly underwritten by other eurozone members. No longer.

But of course what can happen to Greece could happen to any other country. If so its risk premia too would rise and it too would face the same trade-off between staying in or exiting with the freedom to float at similar interest rates outside.

Hence the chances of more break-up would get larger and the system would become gradually closer to a system of 'fixed but adjustable' exchange rates like the old European Monetary System.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Gangnam-Gu, Seoul -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/02/2010 -- Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan has recently exerted pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to act more quickly to defeat deflation, saying he wants the falling price trend to end this year. "Two or three years is too long. If possible, I hope that the consumer price index turns positive by the end of this year" Kan told a parliamentary session.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Fresh Pressure on BOJ for Adopting an Inflation Target. The finance minister also said that the BOJ may have to set an inflation target aimed at dragging the economy out of grinding deflation … a policy where a central bank declares a target for inflation and guides actual price levels toward that goal through monetary policy such as interest rate changes. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa made it clear he had no intention of taking such a step, and explained in detail why he considers it inappropriate. "There is a mood to reconsider the use of the framework of inflation targeting following the recent financial crisis," Mr. Shirakawa said at a recent news conference. "If a central bank concentrates only on achieving a short-term price goal, that could have an adverse effect on sustainable economic growth, which is the final goal of monetary policy", Shirakawa said. Moreover, "such a mechanism would reduce the BOJ's flexibility on policy". Inflation targeting has become a favoured policy among many central banks worldwide, but since the start of Japan's deflationary era in 1999, the BOJ has stoutly resisted calls to set an inflation target against which it can be judged, and by which it can be embarrassed if it misses it.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Fresh Pressure on BOJ for Adopting an Inflation Target. Instead it has relied on softer price guidance in determining policy. Its inflation objective is defined in the loosest terms, as a rate between zero and 2% for the core consumer price index, as one that meets its "understanding of medium- to long-term price stability", with no time-frame to achieve it and no penalty for failure. Still, core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, fell 1.3% on year in December, dropping for the 10th straight month. Shirakawa's comments suggest the central bank will not embark on any further easing for now to put a stop to deflation. However the BOJ might be forced to loosen policy toward the middle of the year if the domestic economy loses momentum from its recent strong performance … recent data showed the economy grew at a 4.6% annualized pace in the final quarter of 2009. And with a key upper house election coming up in the summer, at which the ruling Democratic Party of Japan hopes to win a majority in the chamber, political pressure on the BOJ to do more to improve the economic picture could rise.

Can the introduction of inflation targeting under deflation and zero interest rates contribute to the Japanese economic recovery? Generally, inflation targeting has been increasingly viewed as a good monetary policy framework and widely applauded by economists and policymakers. In the literature, there are benefits of inflation targeting for both inflation and output behaviour. Inflation targeting should stabilise the level of inflation, reduce its variability and persistence, and also decrease the variability of output.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Fresh Pressure on BOJ for Adopting an Inflation Target. A recent study by Daniel Leigh, an economist at the IMF, shows that had Japan introduced inflation target in the 90's its economy's performance would have substantially improved and the BOJ would have avoided the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. But the essence of the question is to what extent the introduction of inflation targeting will enhance credibility of the BOJ's reflation policy in a deflationary phase and help economic recovery. More importantly, whether or not the BOJ monetary policy is credible enough for inflation expectations to be anchored to an inflation target. Takehiro Sato of Morgan Stanley says that, unlike the Federal Reserve, which has won a high degree of respect for its handling of monetary policy, Japan's central bank is not yet trusted by markets because of its past moves. "The BOJ's policy track record is bad.

A target for inflation helps to anchor future expectations of monetary policy, but BOJ lacks credibility. The mere announcement of an inflation target would not change expectations", he said. Indeed, the introduction of inflation targets among advanced countries tends to be accompanied by an institutional framework that makes inflation targeting credible and accountable. In several countries, including New Zealand and Australia, inflation targeting is an agreement between the government and the central bank, and both are committed to policy that is consistent with the inflation target.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Fresh Pressure on BOJ for Adopting an Inflation Target. In several countries, including New Zealand and the UK, when inflation exceeds the target by a wide margin, the Governor is required to provide an explanation to the parliament. With accountability and commitment, inflation targeting does become credible.

A central bank in a deflationary environment is subject to a time-inconsistency problem: it cannot credibly commit to "being irresponsible" and so continue to shoot for high inflation.

Furthermore, there is a concern that once the Japanese economy has emerged from a deflationary spiral and starts to recover, the central bank will be tempted to renege on its commitment to a high inflation target, because it would like the economy to return to an inflation rate consistent with price stability. Thus a central bank in a deflationary environment is subject to a time-inconsistency problem: it cannot credibly commit to "being irresponsible" and so continue to shoot for high inflation. The result of the time-inconsistency problem is that the markets would not be convinced that inflation would remain high, and inflation expectations would not be high enough to lower real rates sufficiently to stimulate the economy out of the deflation trap. To overcome deflation and restore economic activity Japanese policymakers may not need to adopt an inflation target. They could simply use unconventional instruments, such as purchases of riskier assets and foreign assets, more aggressively so to persuade the markets and the public that there will be higher inflation.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Gangnam-Gu, Seoul -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/30/2010 -- Now consider UK taxation. Already under this current UK government tax, and stealth taxation in particular, has become the soft default option. By the mid-2000s the top marginal rate of tax including all imposts, whether on wages or consumption, had reached 60%, the average tax rate was 40% and the marginal tax rate on the average person 43%. Now that the explicit top rate of income tax has gone over 50%, the top rate has gone up to around 67%. So far for the average worker not much has changed since the mid-2000s. However, further rises in tax rates from these levels are not an option and indeed they must be cut, for two reasons. The first reason concerns the 'Laffer Curve'; which computes the extra revenue raised for every rise in the marginal tax rate. This curve reaches a peak at some fairly moderate marginal tax rate because of the effect on effort and tax evasion.

All informed observers, including the Institute of Fiscal Studies which is generally in favour of higher taxes and redistribution, agree that the 50% new top tax rate will not increase revenue and will probably lower it for this reason. The second reason concerns growth. Growth comes from the innovative activities of entrepreneurs, who are extremely sensitive to marginal tax rates because their activities are risky and any gains uncertain; the more these are taxed the less the expected return and if this drops below some threshold they will not bother at all.

The UK needs both to make the fiscal adjustment on the spending side by reviving old-style Treasury control and then quickly bring their tax system back into the land of reasonable incentives, following that up with reforms 'flattening' the marginal tax rates across the economy and income groups.

Estimates of the effects on growth of marginal tax rates are for obvious reasons uncertain; but the sort of effect that comes out of empirical studies is an elasticity of one third, i.e. for every 10% reduction in tax growth would rise by 3% (e.g. a reduction of the marginal tax rate from 40% to 36% would raise growth from 2.5% to 2.58%).

This effect seems small but it accumulates into something large. So in short the UK needs both to make the fiscal adjustment on the spending side by reviving old-style Treasury control and then quickly bring their tax system back into the land of reasonable incentives, following that up with reforms 'flattening' the marginal
tax rates across the economy and income groups.

The supporting role of monetary policy This fiscal adjustment, however gradually brought about, is going to be a fairly grim process and it will dampen growth further. It will require the efforts of the monetary authorities to support the economy through it, without pushing inflation over the target.

At present the bank credit is not expanding, whereas a growing economy requires bank credit growth usually of twice or more times the GDP growth rate. The Bank of England is keeping interest rates low but has suspended the printing of money ('quantitative easing'), even though bank credit growth has not responded. But it may well need to restart it. This is something the UK will need to watch and if, as seems likely, inflation falls back to well below the target and the economy falters under fiscal retrenchment, and the Bank of England will need to take steps to get the broad money supply growing again. As we have noted before, other channels for money appear to be working in substitution … UK equity and corporate bonds issues have been substantial recently. So liquidity may turn out adequate even without credit growth revival.

Our forecast for the UK Though the UK Budget was predictably vacuous, being a pre-election affair, our forecast assumes that action pretty much along the above lines will be taken after the election by whatever government is in power … hung Parliament or not. The reason is that there is little room for manoeuvre and privately in fact the parties do not materially disagree, except to some degree on what modest room there could be for tax rises instead of spending cuts. So in short we think there will be fiscal retrenchment, monetary policy will provide support, and so the UK recovery will slowly continue.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Gangnam-Gu, Seoul -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/25/2010 -- In the UK it is obvious that there is no possibility of continuing with budget deficits of some 13% of GDP, the present prospect if no action is taken.

Unfortunately however the recent UK Budget produced no credible plan for dealing with this problem. It swept it into the lap of the new government after the May election, whatever that government is.

The UK and the Budget: Shaw Capital Management Korea. The UK cannot delude themselves that rapid resumed growth will lead to a rapid return of the previous revenue streams. UK growth in most forecasts, ours included, is projected as slow. In our view there is a good reason: the continuing shortage of oil and raw materials worldwide prevents rapid growth for the world as a whole and since emerging market economies are continuing to grow rapidly that restricts the growth possibilities in countries like the UK and other developed countries.

We are already seeing inflation spread into China and otheremerging countries, forcing a tightening of policy.

It seems likely that this tightening will be enough to restrain world growth to rates that will not push commodity prices much higher. So even the fast-growing world economies are being forced to limit their growth ambitions; as for the UK they are achieving 'recovery', but hardly enthusiastic growth.

All this will only change when innovation in raw material use has freed up net world supplies.

Fortunately the flexibility of the UK labour market has restricted the jobs fallout. Unemployment has peaked below 8% (just over 5% on the benefit-claimant measure) as people have opted for wage freezes or cuts and shorter hours … so there is underemployment but not the disaster of double-digit unemployment rates. But this environment is one in which tax revenues will not recover much and in which the demands for public spending will continue.

Time will tell how big the 'structural deficit' … that will emerge once the recovery is complete … may be.

But policy decisions cannot wait until this is better known. So in this Budget the need was to produce a five-year public sector adjustment plan.

Two things should guide this plan: keeping the taxes down and competitive, so that growth and innovation resume, and restoring efficiency in public spending.

The UK and the Budget: Shaw Capital Management Korea. Spending cuts to begin with the last, the current government unleashed a massive surge in public spending from 2000, raising it by 8% of GDP before the crisis raised it by more again.

Everyone knew that without reform and gradual increases, such money would be wasted; there is no practical way to spend such vast sums without raising wages and wasting money on speculative projects.

Productivity in the public sector duly slumped and public sector remuneration including pensions has surged past the private sector where market forces suggest pay should be higher to reflect greater insecurity.

The UK and the Budget: Shaw Capital Management Korea. To reduce public spending back to where it started in 2000 as a share of GDP (at around 36%) would require it to grow in real terms by about 16% less than real GDP over the next five years. Since total GDP growth over that period is likely to be about 10%, which means that spending must be cut by about 1% a year in real terms.

This is a feasible target. The UK Treasury under Gordon Brown became a brute instrument of spending increase, oddly somewhat against the protests of some departments worrying about wasteful effects. The UK Treasury was never traditionally like this … very much the opposite, a place from which wringing money was like getting blood from stones.

It should be returned to its traditional function of restraint; Treasury control, old-style, is the best instrument for forcing departments to find the economies they privately know they can make.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Gangnam-Gu, Seoul -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/25/2010 -- We have made no changes in the balance of our portfolios this month. The strength of the equity markets is encouraging, and we expect that the global economy will continue to recover, and push the markets even higher by year-end.

Portfolio Recommendations: Shaw Capital Management Korea. Market Developments. Economies virtually everywhere have been recovering for some months, the question is what to do post-crisis. For some, like Ireland, Iceland and Latvia, there is little option but severe and immediate public sector retrenchment. For most however there is a choice: on the fiscal side cuts (or tax rises) now, or later spread over a long period. On the monetary side, continued printing of money or cessation and even reversal. In fact this is one of those periods when the 'independence' of central banks, that is their independent authority to set interest rates and the extent of money printing, is a disadvantage for the economy, all of which need at present careful coordination of monetary and fiscal policy.

Portfolio Recommendations: Shaw Capital Management Korea. There has been an increase in the risks in the bond market; the current situation, with the latest attempts to resolve the Greek debt crisis achieving only limited success, and a sudden weakening in the world bond market emphasising the funding problems that are affecting the entire bond market.

Portfolio Recommendations: Shaw Capital Management Korea. Independence of Central Banks. Economies virtually everywhere have been recovering for some months, the question is what to do post-crisis. For some, like Ireland, Iceland and Latvia, there is little option but severe and immediate public sector retrenchment.

For most however there is a choice: on the fiscal side cuts (or tax rises) now, or later spread over a long period. On the monetary side, continued printing of money or cessation and even reversal. In fact this is one of those periods when the 'independence' of central banks, that is their independent authority to set interest rates and the extent of money printing, is a disadvantage for the economy, all of which need at present careful coordination of monetary and fiscal policy.

At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices. We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Before Shaw Capital Management South Korea launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms).

Today, virtually all investors faced with the challenge of managing a significant pool of capital can access open architecture advice.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Gangnam-Gu, Seoul -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/25/2010 -- Equity Markets. All the major equity markets, and most of the emerging markets, have moved higher over the month. Wall Street has provided most of the momentum, encouraged by optimistic comments from the Fed and by the flow of favourable corporate results.

Markets in mainland Europe have responded, despite the uncertainties about debt defaults; the UK market had coped well with a disappointing Budget statement that has left all the difficult decisions until after the forthcoming general election; and the best performance amongst the major markets has occurred in the Japanese market as it has recovered from earlier weakness.

Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Summary. Financial Markets. The mood in the financial markets has become more optimistic again over the past month. There are still concerns about the prospects for the some economies; and the latest agreement amongst the member countries of the euro-zone to offer help to Greece "if this becomes necessary" has been received with considerable scepticism in the markets. This has not really eased the fears about the possibility of sovereign debt defaults.

But there have still been no significant moves towards "exit strategies" by central banks and governments, and so monetary and fiscal policies remain stimulatory, and this has helped to reassure investors that the global economic recovery will continue, even if the pace in the Euro zone is disappointing.

Government bond markets have had another difficult month. The latest agreement amongst the member countries of the euro-zone to offer help to Greece has not been well received, Greek bonds have continued to weaken, and this has provided further momentum to the switching operations out of the bonds of weaker countries. For most of the past month these switching operations benefited the major bond markets; but towards month-end a series of disappointing auctions led to a sharp fall in the world bond market and increased the overall mood of uncertainty. The massive funding requirements resulting from the measures to counter the recession are clearly putting great strain on all the bond markets.

Movements amongst the major currencies have been fairly limited over the past month, but the markets remain very uncertain. The dollar has retained its "safe haven" status, despite the sudden weakness in the world bond market.

Investors and traders have awaited further evidence about debt problems in Europe that might affect the euro, and about the policy decisions in the UK after the general election that might affect sterling; but the view in the markets seems to be that both currencies will fall further against the US dollar. The yen has also weakened over the month, with the move attributed to the resumption of "carry-trade" operations financed by cheap yen borrowings.

Short-Term Interest Rates. There have been no changes in short-term interest rates in the
major markets over the month. Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Summary. Commodity markets have been encouraged by the general improvement in sentiment, but have produced a mixed performance. Base metal prices are sharply higher, but soft commodity prices are mixed, with the further big fall in sugar prices as the main feature.

At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices. We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor. Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Before Shaw Capital launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms).

Today, virtually all investors faced with the challenge of managing a significant pool of capital can access open architecture advice.

A true open architecture firm is completely independent of the rest of the financial services industry and accepts compensation only from its clients. In addition, open architecture firms must make the financial commitment to hire only the most experienced advisors, and those advisors must apply their experience to the issues that will most affect their clients' wealth.

Matters like asset allocation and manager search are simply too important to be left in the hands of young analysts. We are proud of our role in leading the open architecture revolution, and look forward to introducing you to its benefits.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Seou, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/29/2010 -- Brazil's economy emerged from a deep but short recession in the second half of last year. The economy is expected to grow by at least 5.5% this year. But along with economic growth, expectations of higher inflation have also returned.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Brazil's Economy - The government's target for annual consumer price inflation is 4.5%. To contain inflation Brazil's central bank has raised banking reserve requirements on term deposits from 13% to 15%. In addition to the increase in reserve requirements, the bank also restored additional charges on cash and term deposits to 8% from 5% and 4%, respectively.

According to the Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles, the changes were necessary to neutralize the impact of excess liquidity brought by reserve requirement reductions made in 2008, amid the onslaught of the global financial crisis. However, for the central bank it would be a politically difficult task to raise interest rates in the run up to Brazil's presidential, congressional and other elections in October.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Brazil's Economy - The government has launched a new investment trust to invest in the domestic Brazilian economy. BM&F Bovespa, the Sao Paulo equities and derivatives exchange is to raise its stake in the CME Group of Chicago, the world's biggest exchange group, to 5% in an attempt to attract more institutional and retail investors to Brazil.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Brazil's Economy - The plan for the two exchanges is to work together to develop a new multiasset electronic trading platform based on the CME's Globex system.

President Lula da Silva, the most popular President in Brazilian history, would like to see October's presidential election as a plebiscite on his eight years in power. He is asking voters to transfer his success to Ms Dilma Rousseff, his chief minister, whose candidacy has been endorsed by his Workers' party (PT).

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Brazil's Economy - Ms Rousseff is further to the left than the present administration, but she has pledged not to make a sudden change of direction. The investors andvoters believe her so far.

We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.

Our goal is to provide consistent quality investment advice to our clients. Although the stock market provides many facets of opportunity for today's investor, there are always just a few stellar markets or niche companies at any given time. It is true that in a healthy market, investments yield favourable returns in a given growth area.

The key is to pick those investments that are driving the trends and will become tomorrow's brightest stars.

One problem is proper allocation of research resources. It is true there is power in numbers, and teams of researchers will generally spot and confirm trends that the individual investor would miss. But on the other hand, too broad of an effort will squander research resources and loose sight of those special investments in an overwhelming sea.

Developing Strategic Research Capital. By having broad and robust resources, then viewing and deploying those resources in a multi-dimensional fashion, a balanced research model is created yielding greater and more focused results. In short, Research Capital. To achieve this result, research is targeted to different dynamics of the market rather than a flat view of just general market trends.

Market trends are viewed across a broad spectrum for change and interaction with associated segments, and then for life and duration of changes.

From this initial analysis comes the ability to focus resources on those segments and opportunities that will shine brightest and meet your investment goals. This is the result of a properly developed research program yielding the greatest return of Research Capital, in short a wealth of specific focused knowledge to provide the depth of advice you need to make the right decision.

At Shaw Capital Asset Management your investment is important to us. That same care in managing our Market Analysis Research Strategy provides you with the information you need to make the right choice.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/29/2010 -- With gross domestic product clocking 10.2% growth from a year ago in the fourth quarter, and 4.2% from the previous quarter, Taiwan returned to pre-financial crisis growth levels. In spite of the strong recovery in the second half of the year, Taiwan's economy still shrank by 1.9% in 2009. The government expects GDP to grow 4.7% this year, an upward revision from its previous forecast of 4.4% growth. With rising new orders Taiwan's economy has entered a sustained expansion cycle.

Taiwan's exports rose 75.8% in January to US$21.75 billion from US$12.37 billion a year earlier and imports in January more than doubled to US$19.25 billion from US$8.97 billion a year earlier.

Taiwan had a trade surplus of US$2.49 billion in January, bigger than the government forecast of a US$1.93 billion surplus. The island had a trade surplus of US$1.65 billion in December.

Taiwan will lower investment barriers for its technology companies to do business in China. This sector is the latest to benefit from tighter economic ties between the mainland and the island.

Shaw Capital Management – New Economy - Although we have seen an explosive decade of growth and cycle in the economy, the bombs have been filtered out leaving the economy poised for steady and certain growth. Smart money is now wise to the problems the past few years, lessons have been learned, and the best investments are now at hand.

We have seen extraordinary growth in technology, but at the same time a buffering and selection process in industry. Although the infrastructure is stable for the moment, there are new technologies emerging, which would otherwise have been lost in the chaotic trends of recent times. This settling of the infrastructure will allow these new technologies to become visible more easily, but fast response time is critical.

Poised for Growth. Based on the stabilized infrastructure and upswing and recovery in the economy, business is poised for an explosive period of growth as smart money now focuses in on those business models and innovations designed for success. These select companies are key to your financial growth and your future wealth.

But how to determine which companies are the movers. Short term trends only show day to day trading and market momentum. These are important indicators to a markets early acceptance of a company. The real key is having industry knowledge, and understanding how a company fits into the evolving New Economy over time.

What is required is a group of professionals working together sharing, discussing, and evaluating those market trends and the companies which will be filling the needs of industry over time. Through careful research the Shaw Capital Asset Management Korea staff of investment professionals document and compare the relative strengths of the hottest new companies and affiliates. Staff origins and histories are reviewed. Only those companies with the strongest and most consistent foundations are considered. From those companies with strong foundations of support, the technology and product offerings are then compared in search of the stellar products which address industry needs for a stable fit into the economy, but also do so in a fashion which goes beyond just "filling a gap" in the market. In other words, a strong company and equally strong and visionary products. This type of dedication and selection is what allows us to be a driving force behind the evolution of the New Economy.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/29/2010 -- China's Economy: by Shaw Capital Management Korea - China will continue fiscal stimulus spending and its current monetary policies this year as the country has, in the opinion of the Chinese Communist Party, not fully recovered from the economic downturn.

The Chinese economy grew 8.7% in 2009, and will expand 8.5% in 2010. The consumer price index rose 1.5% in January from a year earlier, slowing from a 1.9% rise in December.

According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the currentaccount surplus dropped to $284 billion, down by about a third from $426 billion for 2008, which was a record. It is the first decline in the currentaccount balance since 2001.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - China's exports fell last year as global demand collapsed, but the nation's stimulus plan helped support imports. China now accounts for more than 9% of global exports, a share that has been rising since the outbreak of the financial crisis and the ensuing collapse in global trade. China's government says it isn't banking on an export-driven future and has tried, though so far without much success, to shift the emphasis of the economy to domestic consumption and services.

According to International Monetary Fund projections, if current trends continue, China's share of world exports will reach 12% by 2014, a higher portion than Japan managed at the peak of its dominance in the 1980s. China's trade deficit with the US totalled $226.83 billion in 2009 — the U.S.'s largest imbalance with any nation. Mr. Obama has promised to the Congress to "get much tougher" with China on trade rules, including currency rates,
to ensure that U.S. goods are not at a competitive disadvantage.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - India filed more trade complaints against China than any other nation in 2009, according to figures from China's commerce ministry. "A balance of exports and imports is important," Indian Trade Minister Anand Sharma said in January in Beijing. China's trade surplus with India grew 46% in 2009 to $16 billion, probably aggravated by the weakening of the yuan against the Indian rupee.

China continues to remain the world's largest foreign holder of the US dollar bonds which stands at US$895 billion. The second biggest holder of the US debt is Japan (US$760 billion).

Premier Wen will deliver the Government Work Report in the annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's parliament, beginning on March 5. It will spell out Beijing's economic blueprint for 2010 and economic growth targets.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - This year's theme is balanced economic growth. The focus of new fiscal spending is set to shift away from new infrastructure investment to education, healthcare, and other pro-consumption areas. There may be a push to accelerate urbanisation outside of the large cities and in inland regions.

The party will endorse measures to increase wages and income. The government has already raised the minimum wage in cities from Beijing to Guangzhou by 10% or more early this year.

The Wen cabinet has indicated that old-age benefits for peasants will be tried out this year and will be made available to all by 2015. Monetary policy will focus on bringing down credit growth to a normal rate of around 17%, from last year's excessive 32%.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - While the 2009 NPC harped on attaining an 8% growth rate, the priority for this year's session is to ensure a more equitable distribution of national income. This year's NPC will benefit from the lifting of the global economic gloom that hung over last year's session.

U.S.–China bilateral relations have grown tense over President Barack Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama followed by the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton meeting. The cyber attack on Google Inc. is widely seen as originating in China. Google has not officially declared that the government had any role in it.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- Japanese Government Submits Budget for Next Fiscal Year: Shaw Capital Management News

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ's philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen.

At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as "a budget meant to safeguard the life of the people." He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority "from concrete to people"; second, initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan's public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor's which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan's sovereign debt rating. "The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan's public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent." "Japan's economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth", analysts at the firm said in a note.

"It's impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending," said Takeshi Minami , chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. "Japan's fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won't grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic measures." A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points.

At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan's GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP. "At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan's GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP."

According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour. More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan's GDP and to kick in no sooner than April. "Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan's GDP and to kick in no sooner than April."

Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year's summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. "Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party's slogan of "shifting weight to people from concrete" and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects", asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers. "Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats."

The budget must now be approved by Japan's parliament before takingeffect. Hatoyama's popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - The markets are assuming that the more powerful members of the eurozone will support the weaker members in order to prevent defaults that might threaten the single currency structure; but the yield spreads have widened considerably to reflect the increased risks. Our tentative view is that the markets will "muddle through", and that defaults will be avoided; but higher overall yield levels seem unavoidable. Prospects in these markets are therefore very unattractive. The gilt edged market has also come under pressure over the past month; short-term yields have remained basically unchanged, but there have been increases in medium and longer-term yields that has produced a much steeper yield curve.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - There has been evidence of a modest improvement in the economic background; and the Bank of England is proving to be a stabilising influence at a difficult time; but a very disappointing Pre-Budget Report has indicated that there will be no attempt to address the problems of the huge fiscal deficit until after the election. Our tentative view is that the markets will "muddle through", and that defaults will be avoided; but higher overall yield levels seem unavoidable. Prospects in these markets are therefore very unattractive. Funding pressures will therefore continued to increase; and so, although there does not appear to be any real danger that the UK might join the list of countries that could default on their sovereign debts, annual debt issues in excess of £200 billion cannot continue for long if this is to be avoided. It is no surprise therefore that investors have reacted by reducing their exposure to the market.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - There is still some doubt whether the UK economy has moved out of recession. The pace of contraction in the third quarter of the year has been slightly reduced, and since then the pace of job losses has declined, and consumer spending has held up fairly well. But business investment and manufacturing activity remains weak, and so there may have been no overall improvement in the final quarter of last year. The Bank of England has therefore kept short-term interest rates at 0.5%, and maintained its quantitative easing programme, and this has provided support for the market, since the bank has been a major buyer of gilts in recent months.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - However it has not been enough to prevent a very adverse reaction to the Pre-Budget Report from the UK Chancellor. The market did not really expect any significant action on the deficit ahead of the forth-coming general election; but was still surprised by the apparent lack of realism. The government is prepared to allow the deficit to continue to accumulate, and is relying on the gilt edged market to provide the funds to finance that deficit in the hope that this will enable it to win the election, and has produced no real indications of how the deficit might be reduced even after the election is over. It is not surprising therefore that investors have reacted by reducing exposure, that 10-year yields have risen to 4% and longer-term yields to 4.5%, and that there are even suggestions that the country could face a capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis in the coming months. We do not share these extreme views; but clearly the prospects for the market are very unattractive, and higher yields appear unavoidable. Investors have reacted by reducing exposure... and there are even suggestions that the country could face a capital flight and a fullblown debt crisis in the coming months.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - The Japanese bond market is basically unchanged over the past month; but there are fears that present yield levels are unsustainable. A sharp reduction in the growth estimate for the third quarter of last year, and weaknesses since then have raised the possibility of a move back into recession and a further period of deflation. The government has reacted by launching its fourth fiscal rescue package since the economic crisis began last year. It amounts to the equivalent of a further $81 billion to be spent in the regions and on subsidies for consumer durables, and is expected to lift the debt issuance this year to a record $835 billion, despite the indications that bond investors may be becoming increasingly unwilling to finance such a high level of new bonds, and the warning from the IMF that the government is risking a significant increase in debt funding costs. Since overseas involvement in the bond market is at a very low level, such a development is unlikely to affect bond markets elsewhere directly; but it could be a warning to other countries of the dangers of placing too much pressure on their own markets.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management based in Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

For more information on this press release visit: http://www.releasewire.com/press-releases/release-3.htm

Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article two of three - Bond markets in mainland Europe have also fallen back towards year-end. There are signs of a modest improvement in the background economic situation in the euro-zone; and this seems to be persuading the European Central Bank to withdraw some of the liquidity measures that it introduced to counter the recession as part of a general tightening of monetary policy that might soon include higher short-term interest rates.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article two of three - But a more serious immediate consideration for the markets has been the decision by some of the rating agencies to downgrade the credit rating of Greek government bonds, and to warn that other periphery member countries of the euro-zone have been placed on "credit watch" and might suffer the same fate. Investors have responded by widening the yield spreads between the bonds of member countries, and by pushing the overall level of yields higher. The markets appear to be expecting that the process will continue. The Fed appears to agree with this more optimistic view, arguing that economic activity is continuing to pick up, and that the deterioration in the labour market is abating. for weaknesses elsewhere.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article two of three - There is also a fear that the contraction that is occurring in banking lending, and in the money supply, may be leading to another credit crunch this year that could extend the economic slowdown. Bank loans to businesses were 1.9% lower in November 2009 than in same month in 2008, and M3 money supply was 0.2% lower, and has been shrinking now for several months. Since an expansion in banking lending was a major plank in the European Central Bank's efforts to combat the recession, this latest evidence of a contraction is a major policy failure, and should be persuading the ECB to move very slowly in dismantling its emergency measures; but all the evidence suggests that it is preparing to act. The latest meeting of its governing council left short-term interest rates and overall monetary policy unchanged; but subsequently the bank chairman argued that some of the existing liquidity measures were no longer needed and would be gradually replaced. This was a disappointment for bond investors, not only because such action might be premature and extend the recession, but also because some of the funds that had been made available had been used to support government bond issues.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article two of three - However the more serious consideration was the downgrade of Greece's credit rating, and the threat that other member countries of the euro-zone might receive similar treatment because of the increased risk of defaults. Bond issues in the zone reached the equivalent of $1350 billion in 2009, and are likely to exceed that figure this year, with Greece alone needing to sell $83 billion, and likely to try to rely on overseas investors for at least half the funds.

Article part two of three.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management based in Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

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Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- Japan's Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Article - Japan's economic recovery appears to have faltered unexpectedly sharply during the second quarter of this year. The government's preliminary GDP statistics put the real quarter-to-quarter growth rate at 0.1%, which translates into an annualised 0.4%, marking an expansion for the third consecutive quarter.

It is well-known that Japanese GDP data are volatile and subject to drastic revisions in both directions. Nevertheless, these data suggest that the economy has slowed considerably.

Japan's Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Korea - This has raised concern that the nation's economic recovery may come to a standstill in the latter half of the fiscal year in the midst of an evident global slowdown of recovery.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - Export growth is expected to weaken in line with the slowing of world trade and recent strength of the yen. Even the Chinese economy is slowing down. On the other hand, corporate profits have been good, but the appreciation of the yen and stagnation in the domestic market might reduce the appetite of Japanese firms for investment at home. Indeed, private machinery orders, an indicator for capital investment, have been very weak. There are increasing signs that many firms are sending more of their production offshore.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Under these circumstances, the government is reported to have started considering an additional stimulus package to deal with the appreciation of the yen, the decline in stock prices, and deflation.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan will have a talk with State Minister for National Policy Satoshi Arai, Minister of Finance Yoshihiko Noda, and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Masayuki Naoshima on the shape of a new package, which may be announced in early September, according to the press.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - Economists and observers criticized the government, and the central bank, for failing to take appropriate measures and urged them to craft bolder policies to decisively face up to the wobbly state of the economy. In particular, they emphasized the importance of preventing any further appreciation of the yen and demanded that the government and the Bank of Japan act first of all to put a brake on the yen's rise in preparation for the growing fear of a second dip in business.

"The yen's rise not only squeezes exporters' profits but also, if left as it is, will encourage manufacturing companies to shift production bases outside Japan, resulting in an irrevocably adverse influence on employment and other segments.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - The Finance Ministry should not hesitate to intervene in the foreign exchange market", said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. With the currency recently rising to a 15-year high against the US dollar, speculation has increased that Japanese authorities may act soon to slow the surging yen. BOJ officials have opposed the idea of more aggressively using their balance sheet because of worries that it could increase market concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline and that the anti-deflation drug could prove too effective, causing prices to rise out of control. Many analysts believe that the BOJ will make a move in the foreign exchange market soon.

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Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- Japan's economic recovery appears to have faltered unexpectedly sharply during the second quarter of this year. The government's preliminary GDP statistics put the real quarter-to-quarter growth rate at 0.1%, which translates into an annualised 0.4%, marking an expansion for the third consecutive quarter.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan's Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - This represents, however, a striking slowdown from the 0.4% quarterly growth, or annualised 4.4% growth, recorded in the preceding three months. It also fell far short of the median forecast of private-sector economists of annualised 2.3% growth over the preceding period.

Moreover, in nominal terms Japanese GDP has fallen behind China's: US$1,336.9 billion for China against US$1,288.3 billion for Japan for the quarter.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan's Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - Looking at individual demand components, the domestic economy was sluggish, with the exception of private capital expenditure. Private non-residential investment grew by 0.5%, almost the same as in the previous quarter, on the back of improved profits. However, private residential and government investment spending declined sharply by 1.3% and 3.4%, respectively.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan's Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - The contribution of inventories to GDP growth declined by 0.2 points. This is a bit surprising given the acceleration in imports, and might indicate that there is still room for an upward revision of growth at the next release.

Officials were particularly disturbed by the slowdown of personal consumption. Although the growth in consumer spending had been shored up by the government subsidies, such as those for the purchase of energy-efficient cars and the eco-point incentive program for purchasers of eco-friendly home electric appliances, the effects of these policies apparently wore off during the quarter.

The eco-car subsidies and eco-point system are due to end by the end of September and the end of this year respectively. Meanwhile, even though major corporations are awash with cash, they are extremely cautious about capital investment in view of uncertainties about the domestic and overseas economic situation.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan's Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - Exports, the prime driver of growth, rose 5.9% on strong demand from Europe. But the pace of growth slowed from a 7.0% rise in the previous quarter amid signs of an economic slowdown in China, one of the biggest destinations for Japanese exports.

It is well-known that Japanese GDP data are volatile and subject to drastic revisions in both directions. Nevertheless, these data suggest that the economy has slowed considerably.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan's Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - This has raised concern that the nation's economic recovery may come to a standstill in the latter half of the fiscal year in the midst of an evident global slowdown of recovery.

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Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- Shaw Capital Management Korea News Release - We have seen major developing economies like China and India apply the brakes earlier this year, as inflation grew on the back of commodity shortages. World growth was running at 4.5%, only 1% or so below the record growth rates of the mid-2000s. This was too fast for raw material supplies to accommodate with current technology.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article - World productivity growth has been slowed down by this raw material shortage … this in our view was the cause of the sharp slowdown in 2006 which in its turn caused the collapse of demand for houses in the US and so the sub-prime crisis.

It will take a decade for new technology and possibly new supplies to allow renewed productivity growth; with plentiful supplies of raw materials this was the era of computer-led growth in productivity.

As growth has been slowed worldwide, so already slow growth in developed countries has slowed even further. This is inevitable.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article - If these countries were to speed up, demand for commodities would rise faster, spurring sharp price rises, which in turn would force them to slow back down.

It is convenient to focus on shortage of credit and excess debt post-banking crisis. But the fundamentals would not permit much growth even if there were plenty of credit and no debt; if the latter situation were the case, then monetary policy would need to tighten. As it is monetary policy can remain easy with the banks in endless disarray.

Seen against this background, the slowdown is natural and should not surprise us. Equally natural is that equity markets are settling, while bond yields fall, with inflation being held down and return on capital depressed by slow productivity growth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: However, none of this implies a return to recession in OECD countries. This would be prevented by a return to quantitative easing and even a deferral of fiscal tightening. Governments and central banks in the OECD are under no pressure from inflation to force down activity. Debt/GDP ratios are rising and this is forcing fiscal tightening. But the pace of this is a matter of choice.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: "As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation"

Furthermore there are investment opportunities in the present environment: high returns to technological advance in commodity use, for example, and to exploration for new sources of supply.

Exports are growing well, as capital goods flow to the fast-growing developing world. Consumption is no longer depressed but rather beginning to grow.

As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation, despite all the ways in which firms and individuals have managed to find alternative finance sources since the banking crisis.

This points to further quantitative easing. Interest rate policy has become irrelevant; the rates at which private loans are being made bear little relation any more to the rates of interest on government short-term loans.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Newsletter - The very low rates central banks are charging banks for loans are merely a subsidy to banks; better instead to release banks from the neurotic demands currently being made by regulators for much more capital, for greater caution in loan-making and so on.

Meanwhile it is time to restore official interest rates to their proper function as regulators of the private rate of interest; they should now be raised towards more normal rates.

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Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- Prospects therefore remain disappointing, and are being made worse by the differences that exist between member countries. The European Central Bank therefore faces a difficult situation. It continues to forecast "moderate" growth and "moderate" inflation; but it is being severely criticised for failing to address the problems of a two-speed economy, and for its unwillingness so far to face the threat that the deteriorating situation in Greece could quickly begin to destabilise other member countries and have serious consequences for the financial stability and growth prospects of the entire area.

It is not surprising therefore that investors and speculators have started to reduce their exposure to the euro.

Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - The critical question therefore is whether the fall of the euro is now over. Since the currency is unlikely to receive any real support from the general background situation in the euro-zone, everything depends on the developing debt situation, and particularly on the situation in Greece; and also on the possibility of support operations from stronger member countries and from the European Central Bank, and the European Commission. The situation remains uncertain. The central bank appears to be reluctant to offer help, and the German government, which might have been expected to become involved, has also made no response so far.

Shaw Capital Management News - But the European Commission has endorsed the latest plans by the Greek government to introduce an across-the-board freeze on public sector wages and cuts in allowances that are expected to reduce the overall public sector wage bill by around 4%.

This may encourage support from elsewhere; however the Commission has warned that it will not tolerate any slippage from the target and will if necessary demand tougher action from the government to ensure that it stays on course.

But it is far from clear that the Greek government can obtain the necessary support in parliament even for the present proposed measures, and so the uncertainty will continue.

It is therefore likely that there will be further falls in the euro over the coming weeks.

Sterling has improved slightly over the past month, helped by the weakness of the euro.

Shaw Capital Management News - The background situation in the UK remains unattractive, and there have already been threats that its AAA credit rating is at risk unless there are credible measures to reduce the massive fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election is over.

Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - The European Central Bank therefore faces a difficult situation. It continues to forecast "moderate" growth and "moderate" inflation; but it is being severely criticised for failing to address the problems of a two-speed economy, and for its unwillingness so far to face the threat that the deteriorating situation in Greece could quickly begin to destabilize other member countries and have serious consequences for the financial stability and growth prospects of the entire area.

But the UK is not constrained by membership of the European single currency system, and so there is no immediate risk of a default on its sovereign debts.

It has therefore been able to benefit from the problems affecting some other European countries.

Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics indicate that the UK just managed to move out of recession in the final quarter of last year. The estimate of growth of only 0.1% in the quarter was a considerable disappointment, and it is expected that it will be revised higher; but clearly the economy is not performing very well.

Government spending remains strong, and there was a surge in retail sales in the run-up to Christmas; but the anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers became much more cautious again in January.

The latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England was concerned by the poor reaction so far to the dramatic measures that have been introduced to counter the recession, and reacted to this situation by leaving UK base rates unchanged once again at 0.5%.

Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - It clearly has no intention of moving to an "exit strategy" until there is convincing evidence that a sustainable recovery in the economy is underway.

It did announce that purchases of market securities under the quantitative easing programme would now be discontinued after the £200 billion target has been reached; but its main priority is to continue to provide support for the fragile economic recovery.

Fiscal policy is also likely to remain unchanged until after the election, because the necessary measures to reduce the huge deficit will be unpopular, and might influence the outcome of that election.

Sterling is therefore receiving no real support from the domestic background situation, and in other circumstances might have been expected to move lower.

Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - But the problems affecting the other major global currencies, and particularly the problems affecting the euro, have at least delayed any further falls. The yen has improved over the past month, despite a generally unfavourable domestic background situation, and some attempts by the Japanese authorities to prevent its appreciation against other currencies.

It has achieved an enhanced "safe haven" status in the current storm in the currency markets, and on the back of the relative success of its exports. But conditions in the Japanese economy remain very weak, and there has even been the threat of a downgrade of its credit rating unless measures are introduced to reduce its massive fiscal deficit.

However it does not appear that this threat will prevent the new Japanese government from introducing further measures to stimulate the economy, and urging the Bank of Japan to intervene in the markets to weaken the yen, and so its prospects remain very uncertain.

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Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- The recent State of the Union message to Congress by President Obama included a request for the approval of a further fiscal stimulus package this year amounting to around $100 billion to help to tackle the unemployment problem, and he has also presented a $3.8 trillion budget for fiscal 2011 that is likely to maintain the overall deficit around the $1.35 trillion level expected this year.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management - Much will depend on the attitude of overseas holders, and especially on the attitude of the Chinese and Japanese authorities. For the present they seem to be prepared to maintain and even increase their dollar exposure; and if this continues, and the problems of other major currencies remain unresolved, it should be enough to allow the dollar to "improve". The euro struggled to recover in the early part of January from the big fall that occurred in December; but the recovery did not last very long, and it has subsequently fallen sharply again, to leave it value against the dollar around 10% below the level in early- December.

There has been no significant change in the underlying economic background, although there is some evidence that the fragile recovery that was developing is losing some momentum.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management Korea - But there has been a serious deterioration in the financial background as the fears have increased that Greece and some other periphery countries in the euro-zone may be unable to fund their massive fiscal deficits, and service their sovereign debts. There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.

The present lack of urgency at the central bank and amongst the key politicians suggests that this trend will continue, and that the euro will fall still further; but there is still some hope that the seriousness of the situation will finally produce a support operation that will ease the situation.

Shaw Capital Management News - All the available evidence continues to point to a slow, two-speed recovery in the euro-zone economy. Germany and France appear to be performing reasonably well, although there are some signs of slowdown in Germany; but Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and even Italy are struggling to escape from recession, and are expected to keep overall output in the euro-zone this year around the 1% level.

Shaw Capital Management News - There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.

Retail sales remain depressed, and fell by 1.2% between October and November to reflect the continuing caution of consumers; and industrial orders in Germany rose by much less than expected in November, after a very disappointing result in October, to indicate some weakness in export prospects that had been expected to provide significant momentum to the economy.

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Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- The main feature of the foreign exchange markets over the past month has been the further sharp fall in the euro. There has been no real change in the background economic situation in the euro-zone; but there has been a serious deterioration in the financial background as doubts have increased about the ability of Greece and some other periphery countries to cope with their massive fiscal deficits and service their sovereign debts.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management Korea: This is clearly leading to a withdrawal of international funds from the European capital markets, and is dramatically illustrated in the widening of yield spreads in the bond markets of member countries. There is still a general assumption that the stronger members will provide support for the weaker members if this proves to be necessary to prevent a default on sovereign debts.

But the uncertainties have been increased by conflicting statements from the European Central Bank and some politicians about the willingness to undertake such operations, and so investors and speculators have taken evasive action, and the euro has fallen by around 10% from its peak in early-December.

This fall has provided support for the other major world currencies, including the dollar; but the background situations in Japan, and in the UK, also provide reasons for concern, and so the currency markets remain in a very uncertain state.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - It is likely that the uncertainty will continue. The US economy is clearly recovering from recession; economic conditions in Japan are very weak, and Japan appears to face the possibility of a credit downgrade if it does not take steps to reduce its massive fiscal deficit; and there have already been warnings from Standard and Poor's that the UK also faces the possibility of a credit downgrade if there are no convincing measures to reduce its huge fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election. Prospects are therefore very difficult to assess; but our tentative conclusion is that the dollar will continue to "improve", helped to a considerable extent by weaknesses elsewhere; and that this will allow market pressures to gradually subside as the global economic recovery continues through the year.

But the possibility of a major currency crisis cannot be ignored, especially if the debt problems in Greece and other periphery countries threaten to lead to the break-up of the single currency system in Europe. It is fortunate therefore that the available evidence on the performance of the US economy is more encouraging. Non-farm payrolls fell again in December by 85,000, but are expected to have increased in January; retail sales held up well in the pre-Christmas period; manufacturing output is improving, according to the latest report from the Institute of Supply Management; and even the housing market appears to be recovering.

This general situation is reflected in the first preliminary estimate from the Commerce Department of growth at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 5.7% in the final quarter of last year, a higher figure than the market had been expecting. Most economists therefore appear to be forecasting overall growth this year in the 2.5% to 3% range, after the estimated fall of 2.4% last year.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - The Fed is clearly in no hurry to tighten its present monetary stance. The statement after the latest meeting of its Open Market Committee was more upbeat about the prospects for the economy; but shortterm interest rates were left unchanged and close to zero, and there was a clear indication that they would remain at very low levels "for an extended period".

The bank did state that it will discontinue most of its emergency lending programmes, and that it would end its purchases of mortgage securities in March; but there was no indication that it would be prepared to implement an "exit strategy" until there was convincing evidence of a sustainable economic recovery. It is also unlikely that there will be any early changes in fiscal policy.

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Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ's philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen.

At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as "a budget meant to safeguard the life of the people." He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority "from concrete to people"; second, initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan's public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor's which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan's sovereign debt rating.

"The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan'spublic finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent."

"Japan's economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth", analysts at the firm said in a note. "It's impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending," said Takeshi Minami , chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. "Japan's fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won't grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic measures." A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points. At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan's GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.

"At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan's GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP."

According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour.

More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan's GDP and to kick in no sooner than April. "Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan's GDP and to kick in no sooner than April."

Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year's summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. "Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party's slogan of "shifting weight to people from concrete" and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects", asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers.

"Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats."

The budget must now be approved by Japan's parliament before taking effect. Hatoyama's popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.

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World wide recovery appears to have firmed up. In the UK the statistics have lagged behind the anecdotal signs of the same thing

Seoul, South Korea -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/28/2010 -- World wide recovery appears to have firmed up. In the UK the statistics have lagged behind the anecdotal signs of the same thing. No one still believes the ONS's peculiar decision to call a revised GDP drop of 0.2% in the third quarter (now revised down from an initial estimate of 0.4%). The UK now have not merely surveys of purchasing managers but also employment, production and retail sales figures, all of which suggest that the economy levelled off in the third quarter and could have possibly also started expanding then, and was definitely expanding in the fourth. The most troubling aspect of the recovery in western economies including the UK is the lack of credit growth to the non-bank private sector. However, this has been accompanied by a general easing in monetary conditions, as measured by other indicators, such as rates of interest on corporate loans and bonds, and the cost of equity capital.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - So it appears that the policy easing carried out by virtually all western central banks has succeeded in offsetting at least much of the effects of the credit crunch created by the banking crisis.

Another feature has been the willingness of western governments to allow their budget balances to move into heavy deficit.

The way to think of this is that governments will eventually have to pay off these deficits by either cutting spending services to the private sector or raising taxes on it. Hence these deficits are loans to the private sector to perform current services or avoid collecting current taxes; these loans will be paid off in the future. The government is effectively giving credit to the private sector that has dried up through the usual channels.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - Some people would like to debate whether such government deficits are effective in supporting the economy; however it should be obvious that in a credit crunch all credit provision is likely to be effective in offsetting the credit shortage. One can agree that in normal times deficit multipliers could well be low because rational consumers will work out that they must pay future taxes to pay for the deficits and hence they may well save in response, so offsetting the direct deficit stimulus.

However in a credit crunch this argument is irrelevant because the private sector is liquidity-constrained. So monetary and fiscal policy have both been dominated by the need to provide a substitute for bank credit. They have done so and been rather effective in this.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - As long as the recovery does not raise inflation and require interest rates to rise, and money creation to be stopped and reversed, the government deficits have been costless because financed by money creation at zero interest rate therefore.

The burning question is when is the turning point, when 'monetary exit' must be started, turning these deficits into expensive processes that could violate sustainability conditions, and hence precipitating the necessity of fiscal exit also.

From the UK or US perspective there is no real reason to rush to the exit. Both countries' public debt/GDP ratios are quite low, in the region of 50 80% respectively. There is no history of outright default, or of refusal to pay taxes. The main issue concerns the possibility of using inflation as a partial default tool.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - In the UK there has been a formal inflation target of 2% or so for 17 years; in the US there is no formal target but a widespread assumption encouraged by the Fed that there effectively is one of the same order. Since debt has been issued over a long period on the assumption of such a target, the gain to the Treasury from a burst of inflation would be large; it would act like a windfall tax on bond investors.

For example to reduce the debt/GDP ratio in the UK back to 40% from its current level of 56% would just require four years of inflation at 6%, only 4% over the target.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - Tempting as this might sound, it is striking how little public interest there is in it. Inflation was highly unpopular in both countries when it was out of control in the 1970s and early 1980s; inflation targeting has proved politically successful for this reason.

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